Introduction to Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Project Management
by Dr. Anton Gates
February 15, 2024
In the 1950s, the term "Artificial Intelligence" was first used to refer to using computers to solve problems by simulating human decision-making processes. More than Seventy years later, artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the driving forces behind the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Computers have evolved with the continued relevance of Moore's Law and sustained innovations in processing power. The development of increasingly sophisticated software applications that organize and analyze vast amounts of data has been made possible by advancements in processor technology. Deep learning is the current evolution of AI, whereby computers are taught to perform complex tasks like speech and facial recognition to emulate human thought processes. AI solutions like ChatGPT, Alexa, Cortana, and digital assistants are all part of the deep learning evolution of AI. We are now experiencing the rapid growth of a more complex generation of AI called generative AI. Generative AI is significantly more complex than previous generations, using various data sources to produce original graphics, computer code, and audio without human input. The ability of generative AI to generate synthetic data from data sources to solve complex problems and answer questions is an intriguing feature. For example, generative AI was used to create the image for this article. "Create a cover image for an article I am writing titled, Navigating the Digital Frontier: Project Management Insights for AI-Powered Digital Transformation" was the simple inquiry that inspired its creation.
AI has already profoundly impacted project management, and this impact will only grow as generative AI evolves. AI promises to revolutionize project management work processes by enhancing tools, techniques, methods, and practices. To grasp the full scope of AI's influence on project management, we must examine project management's challenges.
Challenges in Project Management
Despite extensive research and the development of numerous project management methodologies over several decades, the failure rate of projects remains alarmingly high. Currently, the failure rate of projects stands around 72%. One reason for this is the absence of sophisticated tools to support project managers with documenting accurate requirements, estimating durations and budgets, and understanding the problem being solved. In my 30 years of project portfolio management, projects are generally managed the same way. Microsoft Project, Excel, PowerPoint, and other rudimentary tools are used for schedule, scope, and budget management. Few advanced technologies take an integrated approach to capturing and analyzing quantitative historical and current data to reach a data-driven conclusion about the current state of a project. Advanced AI-powered predictive analytics tools and platforms will supplant conjecture, benchmarking, lessons learned, and risk workshops. AI can provide real-time data analysis to generate insights on performance compared to historical data. It can also provide real-time dashboards and notifications when performance resembles leading indicators of known and unknown issues. The capacity to acquire insight at a much earlier stage than what is achievable by humans allows project teams to act on analytical insights before risks and issues can be detected by human means. Having AI as a powerful companion to the contemporary project manager will provide significant opportunities to exploit risks and issues that will yield positive outcomes. It is highly probable that AI will produce significantly more value from the exploitations of positive risk than lift acquired through avoiding and mitigating risks of adverse impacts. For example, risk mitigation frequently results in an over-investment of effort and financial resources to avoid a risk. AI can provide insights, recommendations, and warnings when efforts to avoid or mitigate risks are excessive. AI provides tremendous opportunities to identify exploitations that could accelerate timelines, minimize cost, and enhance scope delivery.
Influence of Emerging AI Technologies on Project Management
Research conducted by Gartner revealed that 80% of critical project management tasks will be conducted by AI by the year 2030. AI has started a transformation of project management by automating project operations such as scheduling, budgeting, communication, resource management, scoping, and other related activities. AI technologies such as Ayanza, Taskade, Timely, Fireflies.ai, Clickup, and others provide project managers with immediate and accurate project information, enabling them to make decisions faster and more reliably. In the future, AI will provide project managers with suggestions derived from the analysis of historical data, recently generated performance data, and project performance objectives. The predictive capabilities of AI are the most disruptive improvement AI will have on the project management practice. Project managers' AI-aided decisions and outcomes will become AI inputs for future historical reference. This process represents a continual cycle of evaluation, refinement, and training for AI to provide more reliable and predictable outcomes over time. With these evolutionary changes, the maturity of project managers will also require transformation. Project managers must acquire a more comprehensive comprehension of AI decision-making processes to effectively evaluate and make decisions about suggestions from AI-enabled systems. PMs should not be expected to unquestioningly accept recommendations from AI-enabled sources, as many factors and datasets inform AI-driven data analysis. If data elements or factors are unknown or unavailable to AI, PMs must be cognizant of inputs into AI platforms and consider the impacts of inputs when acting on AI-driven suggestions. Also, PMs must understand how data is analyzed and support the business when new quantitative data sources should be created and made available to AI. This will be a significant responsibility for PMs and could result in substantial efforts that may detract from the PM's other critical responsibilities. Empathizing with customers, negotiating with resource managers, facilitating meetings, and other critical responsibilities will be at risk.
Challenges AI Presents for Project Management
Data security may be a significant risk to the adoption of AI by project management practitioners. Companies should assess their privacy and data access policies when integrating data sources with AI solutions. Undoubtedly, with the increasing use of AI, additional regulations will be needed to prevent inadvertent disclosure. Datasets often omit data elements to safeguard the anonymity of data sources. Merging various data sources with AI may unintentionally complete records with data elements previously obscured for security and privacy reasons. Granting AI access to many data sources carries the potential to make compliance with security policies and regulations extremely difficult. Even combining historical data with current data sources might present violations of privacy, security policies, and regulations.
AI will also challenge organizations to avoid excessive dependency on AI to transform business. This could have a significant and adverse impact on organizational culture. According to the Harvard Business Review, companies must prioritize the human experience in their organizations. Companies must not rely too heavily on AI to replace humans, especially when human connection is crucial for creating business and customer value and building relationships. Implementing AI to manage humans is expected to encounter significant opposition from employees. Studies have shown that employee turnover will likely increase when they anticipate being supervised by AI. When organizations invest in AI, they must invest significant resources into training employees and change management initiatives to ensure staff readily accept and embrace AI rather than rebel against it.
What Should PMs Do to Prepare for AI-Enabled Transformation in Project Management?
AI will require significant amounts of data for analysis. Project organizations must identify data sources deemed secure, reliable, and capable of seamlessly integrating with project management AI platforms. Project managers must be familiar with data warehousing, formatting, architecture, security, and refresh rates to quickly detect data issues that lead to AI hallucinations and underwhelming recommendations. According to the Harvard Business Review, failing to identify and correct data quality issues for AI platforms will result in the AI phenomenon known as hallucinations. Hallucinations occur when analytical outputs suggest the presence of anomalies that cannot be confirmed through observation and inspection.
The mere presence of AI and the deep insights it will offer does not automatically result in substantial value creation. Project managers must remain active project participants and upskill to understand how to utilize AI as a supplemental tool to achieve more predictable project outcomes. Project managers and their organizations should invest considerable resources to ensure that integrations and data warehouses are adequately protected to maintain compliance with data policies and regulations. The issue of privacy is a prominent concern with AI and will not get easier as generative AI matures and data becomes more sophisticated.
Conclusion
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize project management by enhancing tools, techniques, methods, and practices. AI-powered predictive analytics tools and platforms can address challenges in project management, such as the high failure rates and the use of rudimentary tools. AI can provide real-time data analysis, generate insights, and offer recommendations to improve project performance. However, adopting AI in project management presents challenges, including data security and the risk of excessive dependence on AI. Project managers must prepare for AI-enabled transformation by identifying secure and reliable data sources, understanding data quality issues, and upskilling to effectively utilize AI as a supplemental tool. Additionally, organizations must prioritize the human experience and invest in training and change management initiatives to ensure employee acceptance and embrace of AI. Overall, AI has the potential to enhance project management practices and deliver more predictable project outcomes. Still, careful consideration must be given to data privacy and the role of human decision-making in the process.
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